PM David Cameron of the United Kingdom must be a regular
reader of my blog. Last Sunday, I wrote about Cameron and his designated speech on the EU, to be held in The Netherlands:
[...] there is probably not much leeway for Cameron within the European Commission and at the government leaders of the European countries to claim a special position for the British in the Union: a position that does maintain the benefits from the EU, but without its obvious drawbacks for the British.
The UK already enjoyed a number of special agreements since the 80’s and Cameron’s position within the EU did not become stronger, since he decided to boycot a new treaty for the EU and the Euro-zone in December, 2011.
[...]
If Cameron’s speech is
too much anti-EU, then he passes a point-of-no-return that hardly leaves him
any other option then heading for the door of the EU. In this case, not only
the EU, but also the US will be angry with the UK, thus further isolating the
island.
However, when his
speech is not sufficiently aggressive and critical towards the EU, he will not
only lose the confidence of a large part of the British population, but also
within his own Tory party and grassroots he might become a ‘persona non grata’.
If I was David
Cameron, I would start to suffer from a political pneumonia that keeps me in
bed until the 23rd of January, hoping that everybody forgets about this doomed
speech.
During this week and especially today, it felt like Cameron
had indeed read my blog.
Initially, he put his speech forward to today (Thursday, January
17) from January 22, a strong sign of intelligence and good judgment about the German
and French sensitivities concerning the Elysée treaty.
On top of that, it seems that David Cameron indeed developed
the political pneumonia that was necessary to cancel this doomed speech without
loss of face. In this case, it might have been the hostage situation in
Algeria. Today, the Financial Times wrote on the consequences of these events for Cameron’s speech.
David Cameron has
cancelled a pivotal speech on the EU in order to grapple with the unfolding
hostage crisis in Algeria.
A Downing Street aide
said the prime minister had taken the decision not to travel to Amsterdam for
the speech on Thursday evening after information from Algeria “that means he
simply cannot be away”.
Mr Cameron had sought
to stay on top of the Algerian situation while travelling to Holland, even
setting up a system to chair an emergency Cobra meeting with officials from
Amsterdam.
However, he
subsequently decided he needed to deal with the crisis in north Africa which
has involved several British nationals. “We have to prepare ourselves for the
possibility of more bad news ahead,” he said.
The decision to cancel
the EU speech will come as a surprise to many given the enormous build-up to
the event, in which Mr Cameron was set to indicate a preference for a
referendum in the next parliament over Britain’s relationship with Brussels.
The Europe issue has
dominated the political agenda all week with Mr Cameron buffeted by the views
of eurosceptics and europhiles jostling for position on the airwaves.
Please understand me that I’m not disrespectful towards the
poor hostages in Algeria and that I certainly don’t want to make jokes over their
heads. I am worried as well about the situation that they are currently in and I truly
hope that all hostages will be freed without any harm done. I wish their
families and loved ones all the best in these trying times.
However, I do stand with my conclusion that the situation in
Algeria might be a blessing in disguise for Cameron, who now can postpone his
speech into oblivion without much loss of face. His speech was doomed from the
beginning for the reasons that I wrote in the aforementioned quote from my
Sunday-night blog.
If a designated speech alienates either one of both parties
that you do much business with, it is better not to hold it at all. At least,
unless you want to say goodbye to one of these parties…
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