“In
1998, we were hoarding food and essentials...
Now
we are hoarding cars and television sets”
Tatyana – statement made during a conversation with my wife Olga
When I left to St-Petersburg in Russia on the 19th of
December, together with my lovely wife Olga and our children, I had a peculiar
feeling that I seldomly had before while visiting Russia during the last 13 years.
We went there in order to celebrate the 75th birthday
of my mother in law, but I was very well aware that our visit was taking place
at the peak of the ruble crisis. It was at the time when the official
exchange rate of the ruble was around ₽80 per €1, but unofficial quotations
were already touching ₽110-120 per €1. And a time in which the prices of
household appliances, consumer electronics and durable consumer goods were
seemingly rising by the hour.
Although I personally know most Russians as very kind
and welcoming people, I – as a Dutch man coming from the disavowed EU– expected
some angry looks and harsh words about the economic sanctions from the EU
against Russia and the alleged involvement of the EU and US in the freefall of the
ruble. I was to receive none at all; rather genuine interest and curiosity about my opinions…
Equally surprising was the total lack of panic and
hoarding behaviour among the Russian people: although the local branch of ‘MVideo’
– a Russian store chain in consumer electronics and household appliances –
showed a lot of empty shelves at the television department, the situation was
quiet and peaceful.
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| Store of the MVideo store chain in St-Petersburg with lots of empty shelves, after Finns and Russians hoarded television sets Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
When there was scarcity in St-Petersburg, it must have
been the best disguised scarcity in the world. My impressions that there were no scarcity problems whatsoever, were confirmed by friends of ours, who visited Moscow during the same period.
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| The sales of fireworks had been slightly disappointing at the end of 2014 Many Russians did not want to spend their hard-earned rubles on it Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
Of course, St-Petersburg and Moscow are not the
usual suspect when it comes to situations of scarcity, but I never got the impression that
the situation in other Russian cities, villages and hamlets would be much worse.
As a matter of fact, during the short-lived ruble
crisis the biggest hoarders– if any – of television sets and cars were Finns
and not Russians, if I can believe Olga’s cousin Tanya (Tatyana). These Finns
were lured to Russia by the lagging effect of store prices, after the sudden
steep drop of the ruble took place.
The peaceful situation in Russia seemed almost unreal.
The only sirens that I heard during my 2.5 week trip, were sirens of ambulances
and the fire brigade: no police at all. There was almost no police on the
streets and no incidents of any kind (including
public drunkenness) whatsoever.
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| Business as usual in St-Petersburg: any signs of panic and structural hoarding were virtually non-existent Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
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| In spite of the difficult economic situation, there were more lights and splendour than ever before in St-Petersburg Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
During the period of our holiday, Olga and I had a few interesting
conversations with our friends and family about the emerged political situation
in Ukraine, the terrible attack upon the MH17 and the question whether the
invasion of Crimea was a strategic blunder of Putin.
To start with the most painful topic: everybody we spoke was
really shocked about the Malaysian Airways MH17 being brought
down with 300 passengers in July, but nobody could believe that there was any direct involvement of
Russia in it [for what it is worth of course – EL].
About Crimea, however, the general opinion was that it had
always belonged to Russia and that it was a justifiable action, to actively support the desire of
the largest part of the population to make it Russian territory again. Even a
Russian, internationally active professor-in-Roman-law was convinced that this had
been a justifiable move by the Putin regime.
Only one friend of ours, Andrei, was convinced that it had indeed been a strategic blunder of president Vladimir Putin and that he had caused the
economic sanctions upon Russia himself with this presumptuous, maverick action
against Crimea and his alleged interference in East-Ukraine.
This general endorsement of Putin’s Crimea policy and his overwhelming popularity might sound
surprising in West-European ears. Sometimes I think that many West-Europeans
still have the post-Cold War idea that Russian dissidents reflect the true opinions of the
Russian people. Opinions that the normal Russian people also have, but do not dare to utter in public.
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| There are Russians, who are so extremely wealthy that they don't have any worries in the world when it comes to the economy Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
The general idea in The Netherlands and the western part of the EU is that Vladimir Putin will lose all
his supporters and endorsements, as soon as the Russian economy starts to seriously
falter, due to the oil price crisis and the economic sanctions. The
West-Europeans might be in for a surprise…
Almost all of our common, Russian middleclass friends with
normal, honest daily jobs and no attachments to the Russian government at all – with one
blatant exception – back Putin’s politics in Russia and with respect to Crimea.
These people are neither indoctrinated, nor afraid of anything.
They are fully aware that Putin and his friends and family have
expropriated large amounts of money for their own interests and that Putin thinks more about himself than
about the rest of the country. They consider this business-as-usual
unfortunately, as this is one of the uncurable diseases of Russian leadership
and Russia in general.
Nevertheless, after the hopeless boozers Leonid
Brezhnev and Boris Yeltsin, the short-lived leadership of Yuri Andropov and Konstantin Chernenko
and especially the ‘traitor’ Michail Gorbachev, the powerful, strong and impressive
Vladimir Putin makes the Russians proud of themselves again. Proud that Russia
refound its self-confidence and has not turned into the puppy dog of the
Western world.
Olga’s cousin Tanya gave us the following concise summary
of the 'communis opinio' about Vladimir Putin: “In 1998, during the last ruble crisis [Boris Yeltsin was president - EL], we were hoarding food and
essentials… Now we are hoarding cars and television sets. We owe Vladimir Putin for that”. She is probably right.
I cannot emphasise enough, how much Russia changed
during the twelve years that I know the country. In 2002, it was a country
lying in tatters and rags: everything – houses, cars, public transport, offices and everything
else – was (almost) broken down and suffered from fatigue after 10 years of ‘cowboy
capitalism’ under President Boris Yeltsin. The 1998 ruble crisis sent
shockwaves through Russian society, especially for the middle and lower classes. Mafia-style murders were an every day-affair in the nineties and people felt generally unsafe and left alone.
There were some cautious signals of a stabilizing economy in 2002, but these were only
small greenshoots.
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| Everywhere in St-Petersburg, you will find this mixture of old-Soviet style blocks of flats and new ones being built next to them Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
Nowadays, the country looks completely different, with
supermarkets everywhere, selling high quality food and non-food products, and
shopping centres that feature the latest technology and modern products from the East and the West.
Even when you take into consideration that the economic growth is almost
completely oil and credit-based, the progress still seems impressive.
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| The old-fashioned Lada's and Volga's have almost all been replaced by modern European, Japanese and Korean cars Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
Countless new blocks of flats, office buildings,
infrastructure and even a totally refurbished airport have dramatically changed
the skyline of St-Petersburg.
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| The new shopping centre of the total refurbished Pulkovo Airport Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
And where driving in St-Petersburg was akin to a
kamikaze ride at the beginning of this century, due to the numerous large potholes in the road
and the unsafe general situation, the new highway around the city and improved
roads everywhere strongly lifted the safety situation.
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| The new Mariinskiy Theater, which has been built next to the old theater and hosts more than 500 shows per year alone Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
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| The impressive outside of the new Mariinskiy Theater, which has brought new splendour to the city centre of St-Petersburg Picture copyright of: Ernst Labruyère Click to enlarge |
These changes were made with Vladimir Putin and his
strawman Dmitriy Medvedev at the helm and many Russians did not forget that:
hence, their enduring support for their government, in spite of the current
economic crisis.
Still, the difficult economic and political situation in Russia itself
and between Russia and the EU remains worrisome. After the ruble had stabilized
during our holiday to around ₽70 per €1, the situation deteriorated again when
we returned home: probably this was a consequence of the oil price dropping further
and after new sanctions against Russia seemed in the making.
Rob van Wijk, the distinguished columnist and strategic
expert of Dutch newspaper Trouw, stated the following about the situation with
Russia in
his column of January 2, 2015:
The
biggest threat for the [Dutch - EL] economy is the conflict with Russia, that could run
easily out of hand in 2015. Politicians and civillians are putting themselves
to sleep with the idea that the worst has passed. That seems a premature
thought.
A
flawed appraisal of Russia with respect to NATO military trainings or Russian
provocations above NATO territory could both lead to escalation. When the economy
in Russia further deteriorates, it could be that Putin searches for external conflicts
to distract from the awkward, domestic situation. A tell-tale signal is that
the new, Russian military doctrine, which was deployed after Christmas, identified
the NATO as enemy number one for Russia.
I am afraid that Rob van Wijk could be right with this
concept. The atmosphere between Russia and the EU (in the eyes of the Russian
leadership almost equal to the NATO) has already been in a downspin since 2008 –
after the Russian / Georgian war about Abchazia and South Ossetia emerged.
Things
like the Polish/Czechian rocket shield, the open flirts of the EU and the NATO
with Ukraine and Moldova and the emerged situation in Crimea and ‘Novorossiya’
(Eastern Ukraine) did not help one bit about that.
Tomorrow,
I will write part II of ‘my adventures in Russia’. Especially with respect to
the current economic conundrum in this country.
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